Mirassol 1-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mirassol face Bahia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bahia make the trip to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia to face Mirassol in Serie A (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 22:30 UK time.
Form
Mirassol (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Mirassol have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bahia have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bahia's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Mirassol's last 10 home games and Bahia's last 10 away games) — Mirassol have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bahia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Mirassol edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Mirassol 5–1 Bahia — a Mirassol win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mirassol — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Bahia — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 58% versus Bahia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 47% | Bahia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.47 xG and Bahia 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.918 / defence 1.105 | Bahia attack 0.978 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.031. Data: built from Mirassol's last 47 games and Bahia's last 47.
Result probabilities: Mirassol 45% | Draw 27% | Bahia 28%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.24 | Draw 3.69 | Bahia 3.55. Mirassol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Mirassol's last 10 home games and Bahia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mirassol 60% (last 10 home games) | Bahia 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, matchday 11 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 45% | Draw 27% | Bahia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Mirassol 1.47 / Bahia 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.918 / def 1.105 | Bahia attack 0.978 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Bahia xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mirassol vs Bahia FAQs
What time does Mirassol vs Bahia kick off?
Mirassol vs Bahia kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Bahia?
Mirassol 1 - 2 Bahia.
Where is Mirassol vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Bahia part of?
Mirassol vs Bahia is a Serie A fixture (matchday 11) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 45% chance of winning, Bahia a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mirassol and Bahia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mirassol vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mirassol's attack rating (0.92) and Bahia's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.98x) against Mirassol's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Mirassol's last 47 games and Bahia's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.69
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.58
1.11
Bahia xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
7%
15.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mirassol vs Bahia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.11 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Mirassol have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 18W 13D 7L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Bahia's form line: 17W 9D 12L from 38 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Mirassol against 1.58 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mirassol have posted 2.26 PPG from their last 19 home games (12W 7D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bahia have gone 3W 6D 10L from their last 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mirassol are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.32 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
Mirassol (Home) vs Bahia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mirassol
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Mirassol vs Bahia Form FAQs
What form are Mirassol and Bahia in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 games (1.76 PPG), while Bahia have gone 17W 9D 12L in their last 38 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Bahia away?
Mirassol's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.26 PPG; Bahia away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bahia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Bahia have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mirassol won Mirassol 5-1 Bahia on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mirassol have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mirassol
1
Draws
2
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Mirassol vs Bahia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Bahia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Mirassol have won 1, Bahia have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Bahia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Bahia 1-0 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 68%, Bahia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Mirassol) and 53% (Bahia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mirassol keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bahia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mirassol vs Bahia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mirassol and Bahia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Mirassol's games and 53% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mirassol and Bahia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Mirassol's matches and 53% of Bahia's.
Do Mirassol and Bahia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Mirassol's recent matches and 74% of Bahia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bahia defy the odds to beat Mirassol 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Mirassol 1-2 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.47 xG and Bahia 1.11 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bahia outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Bahia attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 45% | Draw 27% | Bahia 28%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Bahia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 47%, Bahia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.76 PPG, Bahia 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.