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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mirassol and Atletico-MG share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol and Atletico-MG finished level at 2-2 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.79 xG and Atletico-MG 0.88 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Atletico-MG outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.11 / defence 1.15 against Atletico-MG attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 57% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 16%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights