Juventude 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventude and Fluminense meet at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 June 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Juventude (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Juventude at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Juventude against 1.50 for Fluminense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juventude lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Juventude winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Juventude — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Fluminense — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 50% versus Fluminense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 34% | Fluminense 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.00 xG and Fluminense 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.839 / defence 1.240 | Fluminense attack 1.060 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 0.956. Data: 46 Juventude games / 46 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 29% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 42%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Fluminense 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 40% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jun 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 29% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Juventude 1.00 / Fluminense 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.839 / def 1.240 | Fluminense attack 1.060 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.273 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Fluminense xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Fluminense kick off?
Juventude vs Fluminense kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 5 June 2022 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Fluminense?
Juventude 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Juventude vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Fluminense part of?
Juventude vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 29% chance of winning, Fluminense a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Juventude and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Fluminense?
Record (2 meetings): Juventude 1W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 0W.
What form are Juventude and Fluminense in?
Juventude (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.84) and Fluminense's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (1.06x) against Juventude's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
29%
3.44
29%
3.44
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.26
1.26
Fluminense xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Juventude and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Juventude and 1.26 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 13D 14L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 15W 9D 14L from 38 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Juventude against 1.42 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventude are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Fluminense away?
Juventude's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.74 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Juventude or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fluminense in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 4-0 on 28 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Juventude
3
Draws
2
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Fluminense?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 3, Fluminense have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2025, when Fluminense 1-0 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Fluminense?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventude see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 37%, Fluminense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Juventude and 32% for Fluminense.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Fluminense in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Juventude's recent matches and 37% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Juventude's recent games and 32% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Juventude defy the odds to beat Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Fluminense 1-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.00 xG and Fluminense 1.26 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fluminense landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Fluminense attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 29% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 42%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Juventude win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 34%, Fluminense 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.21 PPG, Fluminense 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.