Botafogo 1-2 Goias – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Botafogo at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Goias fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 9 as Botafogo welcome Goias to Estádio Nilton Santos. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 7 June 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.56 xG and Goias 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.016 / defence 1.261 | Goias attack 0.820 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.958. Goias bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Botafogo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Botafogo games / 8 Goias games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 50% | Draw 26% | Goias 24%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Goias 4.17. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Goias | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Jun 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 50% | Draw 26% | Goias 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Botafogo 1.56 / Goias 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.016 / def 1.261 | Goias attack 0.820 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.958 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Goias xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Goias kick off?
Botafogo vs Goias kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 7 June 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Goias?
Botafogo 1 - 2 Goias.
Where is Botafogo vs Goias being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Goias part of?
Botafogo vs Goias is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Goias?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 50% chance of winning, Goias a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Goias?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Botafogo and Goias will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Goias have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Goias?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Botafogo and Goias in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Botafogo's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Goias's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Goias's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.85
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.55
0.99
Goias xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
5%
20.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Goias?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Goias expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.99 for Goias, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Goias?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Pre-Season
Goias
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Botafogo's record when hosting Goias specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Botafogo
1
Draws
2
Goias
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Goias?
From 4 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 1, Goias have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Goias last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2023, when Botafogo 1-1 Goias.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Goias?
Goias have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Goias away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Goias defy the odds to beat Botafogo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Goias beat Botafogo 1-2 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.56 xG and Goias 0.99 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Goias outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.02 / defence 1.26 against Goias attack 0.82 / defence 1.24, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 50% | Draw 26% | Goias 24%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Goias win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.