America Mineiro 2-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates America Mineiro at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this America Mineiro vs Cuiaba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
America Mineiro and Cuiaba meet at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 June 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
America Mineiro have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
America Mineiro's home record at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — America Mineiro are significantly better at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio than their overall form suggests.
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cuiaba's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in America Mineiro's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: America Mineiro 1W, Cuiaba 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with America Mineiro winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
America Mineiro half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 42% versus Cuiaba 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 24% | Cuiaba 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.58 xG and Cuiaba 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 1.152 / defence 0.886 | Cuiaba attack 0.994 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 0.942. Data: 46 America Mineiro games / 46 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 55% | Draw 25% | Cuiaba 20%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Cuiaba 5.00. The model has a clear lean to America Mineiro (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates America Mineiro as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 40% | Cuiaba 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jun 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 55% | Draw 25% | Cuiaba 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG America Mineiro 1.58 / Cuiaba 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 1.152 / def 0.886 | Cuiaba attack 0.994 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.281 / away 0.942 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Cuiaba xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Cuiaba kick off?
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 4 June 2022 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
America Mineiro 2 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is America Mineiro vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Cuiaba part of?
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 55% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both America Mineiro and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Cuiaba?
Record (2 meetings): America Mineiro 1W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are America Mineiro and Cuiaba in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates America Mineiro's attack at 1.15x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.99x) against America Mineiro's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
55%
1.82
25%
3.96
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
2.41
0.83
Cuiaba xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
4%
24.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.83 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
America Mineiro's recent record stands at 13W 14D 11L from 38 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 11L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for America Mineiro against 1.24 for Cuiaba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, America Mineiro have managed 9W 6D 4L from 19 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 3W 11D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
America Mineiro are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.89 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cuiaba in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 10W 17D 11L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Cuiaba away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.74 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.05 PPG.
Have America Mineiro or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
America Mineiro have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, America Mineiro have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
America Mineiro
2
Draws
2
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 2, Cuiaba have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when Cuiaba 2-2 America Mineiro.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 32%, Cuiaba 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for America Mineiro and 32% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cuiaba in 42%; America Mineiro have failed to score in 37% of games; Cuiaba in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 42% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of America Mineiro's recent games and 32% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as America Mineiro edge out Cuiaba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Cuiaba 2-1 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.58 xG and Cuiaba 0.83 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 1.15 / defence 0.89 against Cuiaba attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 55% | Draw 25% | Cuiaba 20%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 24%, Cuiaba 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 1.39 PPG, Cuiaba 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the America Mineiro win broke the near-deadlock. America Mineiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.