Fortaleza EC 3-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Coritiba travel to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to take on Fortaleza EC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 27 October 2022, 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fortaleza EC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortaleza EC have posted 5W 4D 1L at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coritiba stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Coritiba have posted 0W 0D 10L from 10 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fortaleza EC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Fortaleza EC's 20% rate and Coritiba's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fortaleza EC, 1 for Coritiba and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Coritiba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (home games).
Coritiba in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 48% versus Coritiba 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 36% | Coritiba 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.91 xG and Coritiba 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.904 / defence 0.840 | Coritiba attack 0.663 / defence 1.612. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 0.990. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.612 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Fortaleza EC games / 33 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 70% | Draw 20% | Coritiba 10%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Coritiba 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Fortaleza EC (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortaleza EC as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 20% | Coritiba 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Oct 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 70% | Draw 20% | Coritiba 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 36% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.91 / Coritiba 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.904 / def 0.840 | Coritiba attack 0.663 / def 1.612 | league avg home 1.312 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Coritiba xG
36%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 27 October 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba?
Fortaleza EC 3 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 70% chance of winning, Coritiba a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Coritiba?
Record (1 meetings): Fortaleza EC 0W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Coritiba in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Coritiba (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortaleza EC's attack at 0.90x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.61x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
70%
1.43
20%
4.96
10%
10.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.6%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.46
0.55
Coritiba xG
1.43
70%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
10.18
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
58%
1.74
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
40%
2.48
1%
68.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.6 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.55 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortaleza EC come into this having played 33 games, going 12W 9D 12L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Coritiba sit at 1.06 PPG from 33 outings (10W 5D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortaleza EC on 1.36 PPG, Coritiba on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fortaleza EC's home form reads 5W 7D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Coritiba have taken 0.12 points per game from 16 outings (0W 2D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.00 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 12W 9D 12L in their last 33 games (1.36 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 10W 5D 18L in their last 33 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Coritiba away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.38 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.12 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Coritiba in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortaleza EC and Coritiba runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fortaleza EC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Fortaleza EC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
0
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Coritiba?
From 4 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Coritiba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2023, when Fortaleza EC 3-1 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Coritiba?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 31%, Coritiba 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 19% (Fortaleza EC) and 56% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 44% of games; Coritiba in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 50% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 19% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 56% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Coritiba tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortaleza EC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Coritiba 3-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.91 xG and Coritiba 0.55 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortaleza EC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Coritiba attack 0.66 / defence 1.61, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 70% | Draw 20% | Coritiba 10%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 36%, Coritiba 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Coritiba's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.36 PPG, Coritiba 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.