Juventude 2-1 Ceara – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Juventude at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Juventude face Ceara.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ceara travel to Estadio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude in Serie A (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Juventude — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Juventude have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Juventude, 2 for Ceara and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Nov 2022, ended Juventude 1–4 Ceara — a Ceara win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.74 xG and Ceara 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 1.046 / defence 1.002 | Ceara attack 1.014 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 0.925. Data: built from Juventude's last 40 games and Ceara's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Juventude 53% | Draw 30% | Ceara 17%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 1.90 | Draw 3.29 | Ceara 5.92. Juventude hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventude as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Juventude 40 games, Ceara 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, matchday 3 | Venue: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 53% | Draw 30% | Ceara 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Juventude 1.74 / Ceara 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 1.046 / def 1.002 | Ceara attack 1.014 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.393 / away 0.925 • Poisson stance: Juventude (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Ceara xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juventude vs Ceara FAQs
What time does Juventude vs Ceara kick off?
Juventude vs Ceara kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Ceara?
Juventude 2 - 1 Ceara.
Where is Juventude vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Ceara part of?
Juventude vs Ceara is a Serie A fixture (matchday 3) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 53% chance of winning, Ceara a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Juventude and Ceara will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Juventude vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juventude's attack rating (1.05) and Ceara's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Juventude's last 40 games and Ceara's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
53%
1.90
30%
3.29
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.67
0.94
Ceara xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
3%
33.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juventude vs Ceara Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Juventude and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Juventude and 0.94 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Pre-Season
Ceara
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Juventude (Home) vs Ceara (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juventude
Pre-Season
Ceara
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 30 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventude have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Nov 2022, when Ceara won Ceara 4-1 Juventude.
Juventude's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Juventude
1
Draws
2
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Juventude vs Ceara H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Ceara?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Juventude have won 3, Ceara have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Juventude and Ceara last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2025: Ceara 0-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Ceara?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Juventude edge out Ceara 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Ceara 2-1 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.74 xG and Ceara 0.94 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Ceara attack 1.01 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 53% | Draw 30% | Ceara 17%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.