Botafogo 2-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Botafogo at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juventude make the trip to Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos to face Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Botafogo (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Botafogo at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Juventude's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Botafogo's favour (2.20 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Botafogo 1W, Juventude 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 2–3 with Juventude winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Botafogo — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Juventude — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Botafogo 50% and Juventude 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 45% | Juventude 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.51 xG and Juventude 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.031 / defence 0.945 | Juventude attack 1.100 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 0.925. Data: 39 Botafogo games / 39 Juventude games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Botafogo 47% | Draw 32% | Juventude 21%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Juventude 4.76. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Botafogo are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 50% | Juventude 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 47% | Draw 32% | Juventude 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Botafogo 1.51 / Juventude 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.031 / def 0.945 | Juventude attack 1.100 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.368 / away 0.925 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Juventude xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Juventude kick off?
Botafogo vs Juventude kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Juventude?
Botafogo 2 - 0 Juventude.
Where is Botafogo vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Juventude part of?
Botafogo vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 47% chance of winning, Juventude a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Botafogo and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Juventude?
Record (4 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 2 | Juventude 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Juventude in?
Botafogo (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.03x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (1.10x) against Botafogo's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
47%
2.13
32%
3.15
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.47
0.96
Juventude xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
5%
21.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.96 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Botafogo have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 23W 10D 5L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Juventude's form line: 11W 12D 15L from 38 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Botafogo are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Juventude.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Botafogo have posted 2.16 PPG from 19 outings (12W 5D 2L).
On the road, Juventude have gone 3W 6D 10L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Botafogo are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 1.26 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude in 71%.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Juventude
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Juventude in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 23W 10D 5L in their last 38 games (2.08 PPG), while Juventude have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Juventude away?
Botafogo's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.16 PPG; Juventude away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Juventude in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Botafogo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 5-1 on 21 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Botafogo
2
Draws
1
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Juventude?
From 6 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 3, Juventude have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Juventude 1-3 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Juventude?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 47%, Juventude 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Botafogo) and 58% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Botafogo's games and 79% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Botafogo vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Botafogo's recent games and 58% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Juventude tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Juventude in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Juventude 2-0 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.51 xG and Juventude 0.96 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juventude landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Juventude attack 1.10 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 47% | Draw 32% | Juventude 21%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 45%, Juventude 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.