Internacional 1-2 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 37%, yet in-form Mirassol provide a compelling counter-argument — this Internacional vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Mirassol travel to Estádio Beira-Rio to take on Internacional in Serie A (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Internacional — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Internacional have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Internacional are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Mirassol have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Mirassol have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mirassol are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Internacional, 1 for Mirassol and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Oct 2025, ended Internacional 1–3 Mirassol — a Mirassol win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Internacional trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Mirassol trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 60% versus Mirassol 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 47% | Mirassol 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Internacional surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Mirassol have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.08 xG and Mirassol 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.735 / defence 0.975 | Mirassol attack 0.982 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.022. Internacional's attack rating of 0.735 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Internacional's last 49 games and Mirassol's last 48.
Result probabilities: Internacional 37% | Draw 32% | Mirassol 31%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.74 | Draw 3.09 | Mirassol 3.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mirassol (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Internacional 70% (last 10 home games) | Mirassol 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, matchday 12 | Venue: Estádio Beira-Rio • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 37% | Draw 32% | Mirassol 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Internacional 1.08 / Mirassol 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.735 / def 0.975 | Mirassol attack 0.982 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Internacional (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Mirassol xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Internacional vs Mirassol FAQs
What time does Internacional vs Mirassol kick off?
Internacional vs Mirassol kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Estádio Beira-Rio.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Mirassol?
Internacional 1 - 2 Mirassol.
Where is Internacional vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Beira-Rio.
What competition is Internacional vs Mirassol part of?
Internacional vs Mirassol is a Serie A fixture (matchday 12) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 37% chance of winning, Mirassol a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Internacional and Mirassol will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Internacional vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Internacional's attack at 0.73x the league average against Mirassol's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Internacional's last 49 games and Mirassol's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
37%
2.74
32%
3.09
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.06
0.98
Mirassol xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Internacional vs Mirassol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Internacional and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Internacional and 0.98 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Internacional come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 11D 16L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.76 PPG from 38 outings (18W 13D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Mirassol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Internacional — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Internacional's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across their last 19 home games, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Internacional are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.26 points per game from their last 19 away games (6W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Internacional are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.66 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Internacional have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Mirassol
Current Season
Internacional (Home) vs Mirassol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Internacional
Current Season
Mirassol
Current Season
❓ Internacional vs Mirassol Form FAQs
What form are Internacional and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Mirassol away?
Internacional's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.58 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2025. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mirassol have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Internacional's record when hosting Mirassol specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Internacional
1
Draws
3
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Internacional vs Mirassol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Mirassol?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Internacional have won 0, Mirassol have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Internacional and Mirassol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Mirassol 2-0 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 58%, Mirassol 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Internacional) and 32% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Mirassol in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Internacional vs Mirassol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Internacional and Mirassol matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Internacional's recent matches and 47% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Internacional and Mirassol matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Internacional's recent games and 32% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Mirassol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Internacional's recent matches and 79% of Mirassol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mirassol defy the odds to beat Internacional 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Internacional 1-2 at Estádio Beira-Rio, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.08 xG and Mirassol 0.98 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mirassol outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.73 / defence 0.97 against Mirassol attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 37% | Draw 32% | Mirassol 31%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Mirassol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 47%, Mirassol 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Mirassol's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.