Chapecoense-sc 1-4 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Botafogo make the trip to Arena Condá to face Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Form
Botafogo's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.39 xG and Botafogo 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.818 / defence 1.489 | Botafogo attack 1.218 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.017. Botafogo have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Chapecoense-sc games / 48 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 28% | Draw 24% | Botafogo 48%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Botafogo 2.08. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 28% | Draw 24% | Botafogo 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.39 / Botafogo 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.818 / def 1.489 | Botafogo attack 1.218 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.017 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Botafogo xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo?
Chapecoense-sc 1 - 4 Botafogo.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 28% chance of winning, Botafogo a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Botafogo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Botafogo in?
Botafogo (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Botafogo away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chapecoense-sc's attack rating (0.82) and Botafogo's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.22x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
28%
3.53
24%
4.15
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
3.23
1.84
Botafogo xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
16%
6.32
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
4%
22.35
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.84 for Botafogo, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Botafogo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
0
Draws
1
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Botafogo?
From 1 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Botafogo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 1-4 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Chapecoense-sc 1-4 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.39 xG and Botafogo 1.84 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Botafogo outscored their 1.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.82 / defence 1.49 against Botafogo attack 1.22 / defence 1.15, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 28% | Draw 24% | Botafogo 48%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.