Internacional 1-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Internacional at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Internacional vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Internacional welcome Gremio to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Serie A (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 19 October 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Internacional stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Internacional's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Gremio have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gremio's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Internacional are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Internacional have won 3, Gremio 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Jun 2024, ended Internacional 1–0 Gremio — a Internacional win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Internacional trading profile (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Gremio trading profile (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 54% versus Gremio 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 46% | Gremio 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.49 xG and Gremio 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.161 / defence 0.995 | Gremio attack 1.043 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 0.983. Data: built from Internacional's last 66 games and Gremio's last 67.
Result probabilities: Internacional 47% | Draw 28% | Gremio 25%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.13 | Draw 3.59 | Gremio 3.98. Internacional hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Internacional 70% (last 10 home games) | Gremio 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 30 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 47% | Draw 28% | Gremio 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Internacional 1.49 / Gremio 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.161 / def 0.995 | Gremio attack 1.043 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.347 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Internacional (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gremio xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Internacional vs Gremio FAQs
What time does Internacional vs Gremio kick off?
Internacional vs Gremio kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Gremio?
Internacional 1 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Internacional vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Gremio part of?
Internacional vs Gremio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 30) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 47% chance of winning, Gremio a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Internacional and Gremio will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Internacional vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Internacional's attack at 1.16x the league average against Gremio's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Internacional's last 66 games and Gremio's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.59
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.51
1.02
Gremio xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
6%
17.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Internacional vs Gremio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Internacional and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Internacional and 1.02 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Internacional come into this having played 66 games, going 27W 20D 19L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.52 PPG from 66 outings (30W 10D 26L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Internacional on 1.53 PPG, Gremio on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Internacional's home form reads 16W 9D 7L across their last 32 home games, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 32 away games (10W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Internacional are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.44 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
Internacional (Home) vs Gremio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Internacional
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Internacional vs Gremio Form FAQs
What form are Internacional and Gremio in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 27W 20D 19L in their last 66 games (1.53 PPG), while Gremio have gone 30W 10D 26L in their last 66 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Gremio away?
Internacional's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.78 PPG; Gremio away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from July 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Internacional's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Internacional
4
Draws
2
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Internacional vs Gremio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Gremio?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Internacional have won 4, Gremio have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Gremio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Gremio 1-1 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Gremio?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Internacional see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 59%, Gremio 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Internacional) and 66% (Gremio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Gremio in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Internacional vs Gremio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Internacional and Gremio matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Internacional's games and 62% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Internacional and Gremio matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Internacional's matches and 66% of Gremio's.
Do Internacional and Gremio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Internacional's recent matches and 81% of Gremio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Gremio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Gremio 1-0 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.49 xG and Gremio 1.02 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gremio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.16 / defence 0.99 against Gremio attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 47% | Draw 28% | Gremio 25%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 46%, Gremio 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Gremio's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.53 PPG, Gremio 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.