Juventude 3-5 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Juventude face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Monday 21 October 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventude stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Juventude at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Palmeiras's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Palmeiras's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Juventude's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Palmeiras have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Juventude.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2024, ended 1–3 with Palmeiras winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Palmeiras have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Juventude in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 69% versus Palmeiras 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 45% | Palmeiras 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.93 xG and Palmeiras 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.998 / defence 1.157 | Palmeiras attack 1.010 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 0.969. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 29 Juventude games / 67 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 29% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 40%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Palmeiras 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 70% | Palmeiras 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 29% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Juventude 0.93 / Palmeiras 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.998 / def 1.157 | Palmeiras attack 1.010 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.342 / away 0.969 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Palmeiras xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Palmeiras kick off?
Juventude vs Palmeiras kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 21 October 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Juventude 3 - 5 Palmeiras.
Where is Juventude vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Palmeiras part of?
Juventude vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 29% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Juventude and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Palmeiras?
Record (5 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 4W.
What form are Juventude and Palmeiras in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Juventude's attack at 1.00x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
29%
3.42
31%
3.20
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.07
1.13
Palmeiras xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.3 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Juventude and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Juventude and 1.13 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 8W 10D 11L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 17W 6D 6L from 29 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Juventude.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.86 PPG from 14 outings (7W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 6W 5D 3L from 14 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Juventude are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.59 scored and 0.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 17W 6D 6L in their last 29 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Palmeiras away?
Juventude's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.86 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Juventude or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventude and Palmeiras runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jun 2021, when Palmeiras won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Juventude
1
Draws
7
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Palmeiras?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, Palmeiras have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Juventude 0-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 64%, Palmeiras 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Juventude) and 29% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Palmeiras in 50%; Palmeiras in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Juventude's recent matches and 29% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Juventude's recent games and 29% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Juventude 3-5 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.93 xG and Palmeiras 1.13 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Juventude beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palmeiras outscored their 1.13 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.00 / defence 1.16 against Palmeiras attack 1.01 / defence 0.70, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 29% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 40%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 45%, Palmeiras 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Palmeiras's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.