Flamengo 0-2 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Flamengo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Fluminense travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 October 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Flamengo have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Flamengo are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Flamengo 1.40 PPG, Fluminense 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Flamengo, 2 for Fluminense and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2024, ended 1–0 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Fluminense trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 58% versus Fluminense 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Fluminense 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.28 xG and Fluminense 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.024 / defence 0.972 | Fluminense attack 0.768 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 0.974. Data: 66 Flamengo games / 66 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 49% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 21%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Fluminense 4.76. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 80% | Fluminense 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 49% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG Flamengo 1.28 / Fluminense 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.024 / def 0.972 | Fluminense attack 0.768 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.350 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Fluminense xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Fluminense kick off?
Flamengo vs Fluminense kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Flamengo 0 - 2 Fluminense.
Where is Flamengo vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Fluminense part of?
Flamengo vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 49% chance of winning, Fluminense a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Flamengo and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
Record (6 meetings): Flamengo 2W | Draws 2 | Fluminense 2W.
What form are Flamengo and Fluminense in?
Flamengo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.02x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
49%
2.03
30%
3.36
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.00
0.73
Fluminense xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
6%
17.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.73 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 34W 15D 17L from 66 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 28L across 66 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fluminense heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 19W 8D 6L from 33 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 6W 5D 22L across 33 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.11 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 34W 15D 17L in their last 66 games (1.77 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 24W 14D 28L in their last 66 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Fluminense away?
Flamengo's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.97 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fluminense in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Fluminense runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Flamengo
2
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Fluminense have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 52%, Fluminense 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Flamengo) and 36% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Fluminense in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Flamengo's recent matches and 30% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Flamengo's recent games and 36% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Fluminense tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Flamengo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Flamengo 0-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.28 xG and Fluminense 0.73 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Fluminense outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Fluminense attack 0.77 / defence 0.92, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 49% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 21%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Fluminense 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Fluminense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.