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Shock result as Sport Recife defy the odds to beat Gremio 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sport Recife beat Gremio 0-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.64 xG and Sport Recife 0.78 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gremio fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against Sport Recife attack 0.77 / defence 1.31, drawn from 55/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 57% | Draw 26% | Sport Recife 17%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Sport Recife win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 25%, Sport Recife 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sport Recife's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Gremio arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.38. Form was overturned, with Sport Recife winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sport Recife (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights