Gremio 0-1 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gremio at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gremio vs Sport Recife encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Sport Recife travel to Arena do Grêmio to take on Gremio. The game is scheduled for Monday 11 August 2025, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena do Grêmio, Gremio have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena do Grêmio than their overall form suggests.
Sport Recife — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sport Recife have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Gremio are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gremio, 2 for Sport Recife and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Sport Recife winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gremio in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games).
Sport Recife in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 56% versus Sport Recife 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gremio 25% | Sport Recife 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.64 xG and Sport Recife 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.968 / defence 0.983 | Sport Recife attack 0.766 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.030. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Gremio games / 16 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 57% | Draw 26% | Sport Recife 17%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Sport Recife 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Gremio (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gremio 60% | Sport Recife 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Monday 11 Aug 2025, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 57% | Draw 26% | Sport Recife 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Gremio 1.64 / Sport Recife 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.968 / def 0.983 | Sport Recife attack 0.766 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Gremio (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Sport Recife xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Sport Recife kick off?
Gremio vs Sport Recife kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 11 August 2025 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Sport Recife?
Gremio 0 - 1 Sport Recife.
Where is Gremio vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Sport Recife part of?
Gremio vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 57% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gremio and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Sport Recife?
Record (2 meetings): Gremio 0W | Draws 0 | Sport Recife 2W.
What form are Gremio and Sport Recife in?
Gremio (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Sport Recife (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gremio's attack rating (0.97) and Sport Recife's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.88
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.41
0.78
Sport Recife xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
3%
30.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Gremio and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Gremio and 0.78 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Sport Recife?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gremio's recent record stands at 4W 5D 7L from 16 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sport Recife, meanwhile, have gone 0W 6D 10L across 16 games — 0.38 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gremio by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sport Recife heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gremio have managed 3W 3D 1L from 7 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sport Recife's away record stands at 0W 1D 6L across 7 trips, a 0.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.56 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Sport Recife
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 0W 6D 10L in their last 16 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Sport Recife away?
Gremio's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.71 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gremio and Sport Recife runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2025, when Gremio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gremio's record when hosting Sport Recife specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gremio
0
Draws
3
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Gremio have won 1, Sport Recife have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Sport Recife 0-4 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Sport Recife?
Sport Recife have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 57%, Sport Recife 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Gremio) and 57% (Sport Recife).
On the defensive side: Sport Recife in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Sport Recife?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Gremio's games and 57% of Sport Recife's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gremio vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Gremio's recent games and 57% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Sport Recife tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sport Recife in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sport Recife defy the odds to beat Gremio 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife beat Gremio 0-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.64 xG and Sport Recife 0.78 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gremio fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against Sport Recife attack 0.77 / defence 1.31, drawn from 55/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 57% | Draw 26% | Sport Recife 17%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Sport Recife win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 25%, Sport Recife 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sport Recife's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gremio arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.38. Form was overturned, with Sport Recife winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sport Recife (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.