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Stalemate at Gremio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 21, as Gremio and Ceara drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.13 xG and Ceara 0.93 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gremio fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ceara landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Ceara attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 40% | Draw 30% | Ceara 30%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 32%, Ceara 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ceara's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gremio 1.21 PPG, Ceara 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights