Gremio 0-0 Ceara – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gremio at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 21 as Gremio welcome Ceara to Arena do Grêmio. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gremio — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena do Grêmio, Gremio have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ceara stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Gremio) versus 1.00 (Ceara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gremio, 2 for Ceara and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Ceara winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gremio trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Ceara trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 58% versus Ceara 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gremio 32% | Ceara 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.13 xG and Ceara 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.847 / defence 0.974 | Ceara attack 0.854 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.118. Data: 57 Gremio games / 19 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 40% | Draw 30% | Ceara 30%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Ceara 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gremio as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gremio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Gremio 50% | Ceara 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 40% | Draw 30% | Ceara 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Gremio 1.13 / Ceara 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.847 / def 0.974 | Ceara attack 0.854 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Gremio (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Ceara xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Ceara kick off?
Gremio vs Ceara kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Ceara?
Gremio 0 - 0 Ceara.
Where is Gremio vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Ceara part of?
Gremio vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 40% chance of winning, Ceara a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Gremio and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Ceara?
Record (3 meetings): Gremio 1W | Draws 0 | Ceara 2W.
What form are Gremio and Ceara in?
Gremio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Ceara (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gremio's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Ceara's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.33
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.06
0.93
Ceara xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gremio and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Gremio and 0.93 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 6W 5D 8L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ceara's form line: 7W 4D 8L from 19 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.21 PPG, Ceara on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ceara have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ceara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gremio are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Ceara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Ceara in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 6W 5D 8L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Ceara have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Ceara away?
Gremio's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.67 PPG; Ceara away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Gremio or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Ceara in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gremio's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gremio
1
Draws
2
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Ceara?
From 4 meetings on record, Gremio have won 1, Ceara have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Gremio 0-0 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Ceara?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gremio see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ceara see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 56%, Ceara 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Gremio) and 56% (Ceara).
On the defensive side: Ceara in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Ceara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Gremio's games and 56% of Ceara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gremio vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Gremio's recent games and 56% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Gremio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 21, as Gremio and Ceara drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.13 xG and Ceara 0.93 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gremio fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ceara landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Ceara attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 40% | Draw 30% | Ceara 30%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 32%, Ceara 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ceara's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.21 PPG, Ceara 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.