Goias 1-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Goias at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Goias vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Goias and Coritiba meet at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 July 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Goias's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Goias, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Goias's home record at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro: 3W 4D 2L from 9 Serie A appearances (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Coritiba (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's away record: 0W 2D 7L from 9 road trips in Serie A this season (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.22 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Goias have seen both teams score in 78% of their games, Coritiba in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Goias 0W, Coritiba 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Coritiba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Goias — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Coritiba — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Goias 58% versus Coritiba 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Goias 42% | Coritiba 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 2.07 xG and Coritiba 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 1.039 / defence 1.252 | Coritiba attack 0.860 / defence 1.514. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 0.951. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.514 — this is suppressing Goias's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Goias games / 19 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 62% | Draw 21% | Coritiba 18%. Fair-value odds: Goias 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Coritiba 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Goias (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Goias at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Goias 78% | Coritiba 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 62% | Draw 21% | Coritiba 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Goias 2.07 / Coritiba 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 1.039 / def 1.252 | Coritiba attack 0.860 / def 1.514 | league avg home 1.318 / away 0.951 • Poisson stance: Goias (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Coritiba xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Coritiba kick off?
Goias vs Coritiba kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Coritiba?
Goias 1 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is Goias vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Coritiba part of?
Goias vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 62% chance of winning, Coritiba a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Goias the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Goias and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Coritiba?
Record (1 meetings): Goias 0W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are Goias and Coritiba in?
Goias (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Coritiba (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Goias's attack rating (1.04) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (0.86x) against Goias's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Goias Win
62%
1.63
21%
4.86
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Goias xG
Total xG
3.10
1.02
Coritiba xG
1.63
62%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
13%
7.95
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
2%
44.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Goias and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Goias and 1.02 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Goias's recent record stands at 5W 7D 7L from 19 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Goias is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coritiba, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 9L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Goias against 1.16 for Coritiba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Goias have managed 3W 4D 2L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coritiba's away record stands at 0W 2D 7L across 9 trips, a 0.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Goias come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Goias are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.16 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Goias and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Goias have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Goias at home or Coritiba away?
Goias's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Goias at home: 1.44 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coritiba won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Goias have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Coritiba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Goias
0
Draws
2
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Coritiba?
From 4 meetings on record, Goias have won 2, Coritiba have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when Coritiba 0-1 Goias.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Goias are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Goias, 67% for Coritiba — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Goias) and 67% (Coritiba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coritiba in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Goias play Coritiba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Goias's games and 67% of Coritiba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Goias vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Goias's matches and 67% of Coritiba's.
Do Goias and Coritiba tend to score early?
Goias have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Goias edge out Coritiba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Goias beat Coritiba 1-0 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 2.07 xG and Coritiba 1.02 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Goias fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Coritiba landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 1.04 / defence 1.25 against Coritiba attack 0.86 / defence 1.51, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 62% | Draw 21% | Coritiba 18%, with Goias to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Goias 42%, Coritiba 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Goias's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Coritiba's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Goias 1.16 PPG, Coritiba 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Goias win broke the near-deadlock. Goias (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.