Coritiba 1-2 Santos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Coritiba at 38%, yet in-form Santos provide a compelling counter-argument — this Coritiba vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coritiba host Santos at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 9 August 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Coritiba — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coritiba have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Santos's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Coritiba's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Coritiba have won 0, Santos 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Santos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coritiba trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Santos trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 50% versus Santos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 50% | Santos 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 0.97 xG and Santos 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.920 / defence 1.084 | Santos attack 0.815 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 0.934. Santos's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 20 Coritiba games / 58 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 38% | Draw 33% | Santos 30%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Santos 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Santos's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coritiba as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Santos (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 40% | Santos 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Aug 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 38% | Draw 33% | Santos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Coritiba 0.97 / Santos 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.920 / def 1.084 | Santos attack 0.815 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.336 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Santos xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Santos kick off?
Coritiba vs Santos kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 9 August 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Santos?
Coritiba 1 - 2 Santos.
Where is Coritiba vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Santos part of?
Coritiba vs Santos is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 38% chance of winning, Santos a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Coritiba and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Santos?
Record (1 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 0 | Santos 1W.
What form are Coritiba and Santos in?
Coritiba (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Santos (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.92) and Santos's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
38%
2.65
33%
3.05
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Coritiba xG
Total xG
1.80
0.82
Santos xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 13.7 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.82 for Santos, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Coritiba have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 6W 4D 10L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santos's form line: 6W 9D 5L from 20 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coritiba on 1.10 PPG, Santos on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Coritiba have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Santos have gone 1W 5D 3L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coritiba are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.20 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Santos in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Santos in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Santos have gone 6W 9D 5L in their last 20 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Santos away?
Coritiba's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.89 PPG; Santos away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Santos in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coritiba and Santos runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Coritiba won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coritiba's record when hosting Santos specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Coritiba
1
Draws
3
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Santos?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Santos have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Santos 0-3 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Santos?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 44%, Santos 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Coritiba and 33% for Santos.
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Santos in 33%; Santos in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Coritiba's recent matches and 44% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Coritiba's recent games and 33% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Santos tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Santos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santos defy the odds to beat Coritiba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Coritiba 1-2 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 0.97 xG and Santos 0.82 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Santos outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Santos attack 0.81 / defence 0.79, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 38% | Draw 33% | Santos 30%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Santos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 50%, Santos 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Santos's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 1.10 PPG, Santos 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.