RB Bragantino 1-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid plays host to RB Bragantino versus Juventude in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 31 July 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Juventude (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in RB Bragantino's favour (1.70 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RB Bragantino lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 54% versus Juventude 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 49% | Juventude 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.97 xG and Juventude 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.110 / defence 1.006 | Juventude attack 0.942 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 0.934. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 RB Bragantino games / 57 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 63% | Draw 21% | Juventude 16%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Juventude 6.25. The model has a clear lean to RB Bragantino (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Juventude lead the H2H ledger, but RB Bragantino carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 40% | Juventude 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 63% | Draw 21% | Juventude 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG RB Bragantino 1.97 / Juventude 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.110 / def 1.006 | Juventude attack 0.942 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.328 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Juventude xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Juventude kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Juventude kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
RB Bragantino 1 - 0 Juventude.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Juventude part of?
RB Bragantino vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 63% chance of winning, Juventude a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both RB Bragantino and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Juventude?
Record (3 meetings): RB Bragantino 0W | Draws 1 | Juventude 2W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Juventude in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Juventude (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.94x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.74
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.86
0.89
Juventude xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
2%
44.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.89 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 21W 20D 16L from 57 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventude, meanwhile, have gone 14W 20D 23L across 57 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.09 for Juventude. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 12W 10D 6L from 28 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventude's away record stands at 3W 11D 14L across 28 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.91 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Juventude in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 21W 20D 16L in their last 57 games (1.46 PPG), while Juventude have gone 14W 20D 23L in their last 57 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Juventude away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.64 PPG; Juventude away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
3
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Juventude have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2025, when Juventude 1-0 RB Bragantino.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 50%, Juventude 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (RB Bragantino) and 43% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Juventude in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of RB Bragantino's games and 64% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 43% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Juventude 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Juventude 1-0 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.97 xG and Juventude 0.89 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Juventude landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Juventude attack 0.94 / defence 1.34, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 63% | Draw 21% | Juventude 16%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 49%, Juventude 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Juventude's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.46 PPG, Juventude 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.