Juventude 1-1 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 37%, yet in-form America Mineiro provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juventude vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Juventude welcome America Mineiro to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juventude — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Juventude have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, America Mineiro have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, America Mineiro have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour America Mineiro — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Juventude have won 0, America Mineiro 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Juventude in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
America Mineiro in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 54% versus America Mineiro 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 38% | America Mineiro 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.14 xG and America Mineiro 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 1.038 / defence 1.119 | America Mineiro attack 0.801 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 0.895 / away 1.076. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Juventude games / 24 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 37% | Draw 34% | America Mineiro 28%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | America Mineiro 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form America Mineiro (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 50% | America Mineiro 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 37% | Draw 34% | America Mineiro 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Juventude 1.14 / America Mineiro 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 1.038 / def 1.119 | America Mineiro attack 0.801 / def 1.230 | league avg home 0.895 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Juventude (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.96
America Mineiro xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs America Mineiro kick off?
Juventude vs America Mineiro kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 10 October 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs America Mineiro?
Juventude 1 - 1 America Mineiro.
Where is Juventude vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs America Mineiro part of?
Juventude vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 37% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Juventude and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and America Mineiro?
Record (1 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 1 | America Mineiro 0W.
What form are Juventude and America Mineiro in?
Juventude (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Juventude's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
37%
2.68
34%
2.90
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.11
0.96
America Mineiro xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Juventude and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Juventude and 0.96 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juventude's recent record stands at 6W 9D 9L from 24 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
America Mineiro, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 8L across 24 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventude on 1.12 PPG, America Mineiro on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 5W 3D 3L from 11 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
America Mineiro's away record stands at 2W 5D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juventude are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 0.96 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
America Mineiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 6W 9D 9L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 7W 9D 8L in their last 24 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or America Mineiro away?
Juventude's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.64 PPG; America Mineiro away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventude and America Mineiro runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: America Mineiro have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when America Mineiro won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting America Mineiro specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Juventude
2
Draws
2
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and America Mineiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, America Mineiro have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2022, when Juventude 0-1 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and America Mineiro?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 46%, America Mineiro 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Juventude and 27% for America Mineiro.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; America Mineiro in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Juventude's recent matches and 54% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Juventude's recent games and 27% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude and America Mineiro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 25, as Juventude and America Mineiro drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.14 xG and America Mineiro 0.96 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.04 / defence 1.12 against America Mineiro attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 37% | Draw 34% | America Mineiro 28%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 38%, America Mineiro 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
America Mineiro's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.12 PPG, America Mineiro 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.