Fluminense 2-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fluminense and Gremio meet at Estádio do Maracanã in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Estádio do Maracanã this term (2.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gremio (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Gremio have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Fluminense's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Gremio's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Gremio, who have claimed 5 wins from 8 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Fluminense winning.
It is worth noting that Gremio have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Fluminense — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Gremio — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 38% versus Gremio 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 34% | Gremio 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.79 xG and Gremio 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.131 / defence 0.761 | Gremio attack 1.135 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.029. Fluminense's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Fluminense games / 38 Gremio games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Fluminense 59% | Draw 23% | Gremio 18%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Gremio 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Gremio lead the H2H ledger, but Fluminense carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 10% | Gremio 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jan 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 59% | Draw 23% | Gremio 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Fluminense 1.79 / Gremio 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.131 / def 0.761 | Gremio attack 1.135 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Gremio xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Gremio kick off?
Fluminense vs Gremio kicked off at 22:30 on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Gremio?
Fluminense 2 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Fluminense vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Fluminense vs Gremio part of?
Fluminense vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 59% chance of winning, Gremio a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fluminense and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Gremio?
Record (8 meetings): Fluminense 2W | Draws 1 | Gremio 5W.
What form are Fluminense and Gremio in?
Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fluminense's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Gremio's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (1.14x) against Fluminense's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
59%
1.71
23%
4.35
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.68
0.89
Gremio xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
3%
32.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.89 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Gremio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 31W 17D 28L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Gremio's form line: 25W 19D 32L from 76 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Fluminense against 1.24 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 1.97 PPG from 38 outings (22W 9D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gremio have gone 7W 12D 19L from 38 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Gremio in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 31W 17D 28L in their last 76 games (1.45 PPG), while Gremio have gone 25W 19D 32L in their last 76 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Gremio away?
Fluminense's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.97 PPG; Gremio away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Gremio in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fluminense
2
Draws
5
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Gremio?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, Gremio have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gremio 1-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 40%, Gremio 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Fluminense) and 45% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Gremio in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fluminense's recent matches and 55% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Fluminense's recent games and 45% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Gremio tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gremio in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Gremio 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Gremio 2-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.79 xG and Gremio 0.89 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.13 / defence 0.76 against Gremio attack 1.14 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 59% | Draw 23% | Gremio 18%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 34%, Gremio 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.45 PPG, Gremio 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.