🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Fluminense at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Bahia make the trip to Estádio do Maracanã to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Fluminense (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Fluminense at Estádio do Maracanã this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estádio do Maracanã than their overall form suggests.

Bahia have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Bahia have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Fluminense, 1.70 for Bahia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fluminense lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Fluminense — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Bahia — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 39% versus Bahia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 35% | Bahia 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 2.13 xG and Bahia 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.172 / defence 0.639 | Bahia attack 0.888 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.028. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fluminense's defence rating of 0.639 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 Fluminense games / 75 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fluminense 73% | Draw 18% | Bahia 9%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | Bahia 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 20% | Bahia 80%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights