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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bahia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat Bahia 2-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 2.13 xG and Bahia 0.58 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.17 / defence 0.64 against Bahia attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fluminense 73% | Draw 18% | Bahia 9%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 35%, Bahia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fluminense's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bahia's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.43 PPG, Bahia 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights