Flamengo 0-1 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 37 as Flamengo welcome Santos to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 December 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Flamengo's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Santos — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Santos's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 1, Santos 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 4–0 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Santos trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 50% versus Santos 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 58% | Santos 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.50 xG and Santos 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.231 / defence 0.941 | Santos attack 0.692 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 0.907. Santos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Flamengo games / 36 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 59% | Draw 27% | Santos 14%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Santos 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Santos's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 20% | Santos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 59% | Draw 27% | Santos 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 35% | xG Flamengo 1.50 / Santos 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.231 / def 0.941 | Santos attack 0.692 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.001 / away 0.907 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Santos xG
35%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Santos kick off?
Flamengo vs Santos kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Santos?
Flamengo 0 - 1 Santos.
Where is Flamengo vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Santos part of?
Flamengo vs Santos is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 59% chance of winning, Santos a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Flamengo and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Santos?
Record (1 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 0 | Santos 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Santos in?
Flamengo (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Santos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.23x the league average against Santos's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.72
14%
7.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.09
0.59
Santos xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
7.10
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
55%
1.80
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
33%
3.05
3%
31.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 10.9 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.59 for Santos, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Santos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 21W 8D 7L from 36 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Santos, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 12L across 36 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 13W 1D 4L from 18 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santos's away record stands at 2W 8D 8L across 18 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 0.92 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Santos in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Santos in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 21W 8D 7L in their last 36 games (1.97 PPG), while Santos have gone 11W 13D 12L in their last 36 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Santos away?
Flamengo's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.22 PPG; Santos away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Santos in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Santos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2021, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Santos specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Flamengo
0
Draws
3
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Santos?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 6, Santos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Flamengo 3-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Santos?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Santos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 33%, Santos 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 39% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Santos in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Flamengo's recent matches and 44% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 39% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Santos tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Santos in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santos defy the odds to beat Flamengo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Flamengo 0-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.50 xG and Santos 0.59 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.23 / defence 0.94 against Santos attack 0.69 / defence 1.22, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 59% | Draw 27% | Santos 14%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Santos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 58%, Santos 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Santos's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Santos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Santos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.