Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Palmeiras travel to Arena da Baixada to take on Atletico Paranaense. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 December 2021, 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Paranaense — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Arena da Baixada, Atletico Paranaense have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Palmeiras's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palmeiras are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 1 for Palmeiras and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Atletico Paranaense trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 44% versus Palmeiras 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 50% | Palmeiras 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 0.96 xG and Palmeiras 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.908 / defence 1.297 | Palmeiras attack 1.214 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 0.914. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Atletico Paranaense games / 36 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 25% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 48%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Palmeiras 2.08. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Paranaense 40% | Palmeiras 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 25% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Atletico Paranaense 0.96 / Palmeiras 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.908 / def 1.297 | Palmeiras attack 1.214 / def 1.062 | league avg home 0.998 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Palmeiras xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:00 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Atletico Paranaense 0 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 25% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 0W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 0.91x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
25%
3.99
27%
3.70
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.40
1.44
Palmeiras xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
6%
16.83
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.44 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 13W 6D 17L from 36 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 19W 5D 12L across 36 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atletico Paranaense heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 8W 4D 6L from 18 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 9W 2D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.58 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 13W 6D 17L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 19W 5D 12L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.56 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Palmeiras 1-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 56%, Palmeiras 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Atletico Paranaense) and 56% (Palmeiras). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palmeiras in 39%; Atletico Paranaense have failed to score in 33% of games; Palmeiras in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 44% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Atletico Paranaense's matches and 56% of Palmeiras's.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atletico Paranaense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras finished level at 0-0 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 0.96 xG and Palmeiras 1.44 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Palmeiras landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.91 / defence 1.30 against Palmeiras attack 1.21 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 25% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 48%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 50%, Palmeiras 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.