Chapecoense-sc 0-1 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 34%, yet in-form Sport Recife provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chapecoense-sc vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 37 as Chapecoense-sc welcome Sport Recife to Arena Condá. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 7 December 2021 at 00:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Chapecoense-sc at Arena Condá this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sport Recife — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Sport Recife's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Sport Recife's 0.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Chapecoense-sc's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chapecoense-sc, 0 for Sport Recife and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Chapecoense-sc in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Sport Recife in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chapecoense-sc 56% versus Sport Recife 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chapecoense-sc 47% | Sport Recife 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 0.98 xG and Sport Recife 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.719 / defence 1.728 | Sport Recife attack 0.618 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 0.910. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.367 — this is suppressing Chapecoense-sc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Chapecoense-sc games / 36 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 34% | Draw 32% | Sport Recife 34%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Sport Recife 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chapecoense-sc 70% | Sport Recife 30%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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