Flamengo 3-1 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Flamengo face Santos.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Flamengo welcome Santos to Estádio do Maracanã in Serie A (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 21:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Flamengo stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Flamengo's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Flamengo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Santos — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Santos's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Flamengo) versus 1.60 (Santos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 5 wins for Flamengo, 3 for Santos and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Flamengo 3–2 Santos — a Flamengo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Santos trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 45% versus Santos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 50% | Santos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.86 xG and Santos 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.144 / defence 0.759 | Santos attack 1.039 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.039. Flamengo have a tight defence (rating 0.759), which is pulling Santos's projected output down. Data: built from Flamengo's last 46 games and Santos's last 47.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 62% | Draw 23% | Santos 16%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.62 | Draw 4.38 | Santos 6.44. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (62%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Flamengo's last 10 home games and Santos's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Flamengo 50% (last 10 home games) | Santos 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, matchday 10 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 62% | Draw 23% | Santos 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Flamengo 1.86 / Santos 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.144 / def 0.759 | Santos attack 1.039 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Santos xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Flamengo vs Santos FAQs
What time does Flamengo vs Santos kick off?
Flamengo vs Santos kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Santos?
Flamengo 3 - 1 Santos.
Where is Flamengo vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Flamengo vs Santos part of?
Flamengo vs Santos is a Serie A fixture (matchday 10) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 62% chance of winning, Santos a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Flamengo and Santos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Flamengo vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.14x the league average against Santos's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Flamengo's last 46 games and Santos's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.38
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.68
0.82
Santos xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
2%
41.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Flamengo vs Santos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.82 for Santos, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Santos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 23W 10D 5L from 38 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Santos, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 15L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 14W 5D 0L from their last 19 home games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santos's away record stands at 4W 5D 10L across their last 19 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
Flamengo (Home) vs Santos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Flamengo
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Flamengo vs Santos Form FAQs
What form are Flamengo and Santos in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 23W 10D 5L in their last 38 games (2.08 PPG), while Santos have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Santos away?
Flamengo's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.47 PPG; Santos away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Santos in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 8 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Aug 2021, when Flamengo won Santos 0-4 Flamengo.
Flamengo's record when hosting Santos specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Flamengo
1
Draws
3
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Flamengo vs Santos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Santos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Flamengo have won 6, Santos have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Santos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 October 2026: Santos 2-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Santos?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 32%, Santos 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Flamengo) and 58% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 68% of their matches; Santos in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Flamengo vs Santos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Flamengo and Santos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Flamengo's recent matches and 53% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Flamengo and Santos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Flamengo's recent games and 58% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Santos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Flamengo's recent matches and 63% of Santos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Santos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Santos 3-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.86 xG and Santos 0.82 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.14 / defence 0.76 against Santos attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 62% | Draw 23% | Santos 16%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 50%, Santos 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Santos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.