Flamengo 0-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Gremio travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Monday 20 September 2021, 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 6W 0D 3L from 9 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gremio have gone 2W 0D 6L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Flamengo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Flamengo in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Gremio in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 47% versus Gremio 24%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Flamengo 59% | Gremio 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.43 xG and Gremio 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.276 / defence 1.284 | Gremio attack 0.667 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 0.872 / away 1.059. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 1.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Flamengo games / 18 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 47% | Draw 31% | Gremio 22%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Gremio 4.55. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 44% | Gremio 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Monday 20 Sep 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 47% | Draw 31% | Gremio 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Flamengo 1.43 / Gremio 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.276 / def 1.284 | Gremio attack 0.667 / def 1.280 | league avg home 0.872 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Gremio xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Gremio kick off?
Flamengo vs Gremio kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 20 September 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Gremio?
Flamengo 0 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Flamengo vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Gremio part of?
Flamengo vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 47% chance of winning, Gremio a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Flamengo and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Gremio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Gremio in?
Flamengo (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Gremio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.28) and Gremio's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
47%
2.12
31%
3.24
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.33
0.91
Gremio xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.91 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo come into this having played 17 games, going 11W 1D 5L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Gremio — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Flamengo's home form reads 4W 0D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (2W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 0.71 scored and 0.88 conceded. Flamengo's scoring rate against Gremio's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Gremio in 24%.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Gremio in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Gremio in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 11W 1D 5L in their last 17 games (2.00 PPG), while Gremio have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Gremio away?
Flamengo's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.71 PPG; Gremio away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Gremio in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when Flamengo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Flamengo
2
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Gremio have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Gremio 0-1 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Gremio?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 57%, Gremio 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Flamengo) and 14% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Flamengo have failed to score in 29% of games; Gremio in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Flamengo's recent matches and 14% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Flamengo's recent games and 14% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Gremio tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Gremio in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gremio defy the odds to beat Flamengo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Flamengo 0-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.43 xG and Gremio 0.91 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.28 / defence 1.28 against Gremio attack 0.67 / defence 1.28, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 47% | Draw 31% | Gremio 22%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Gremio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 59%, Gremio 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Gremio's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Gremio winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.