Palmeiras 1-3 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palmeiras and Flamengo meet at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Flamengo have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 4W 1D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.86 PPG). They are averaging 2.29 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Flamengo — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 50% versus Flamengo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 56% | Flamengo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.08 xG and Flamengo 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.285 / defence 1.356 | Flamengo attack 1.419 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 0.876 / away 1.065. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 1.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.419 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Palmeiras games / 16 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 18% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 59%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 5.56 | Draw 4.35 | Flamengo 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 70% | Flamengo 43% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 18% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Palmeiras 1.08 / Flamengo 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.285 / def 1.356 | Flamengo attack 1.419 / def 0.960 | league avg home 0.876 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Flamengo xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Flamengo kick off?
Palmeiras vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Palmeiras 1 - 3 Flamengo.
Where is Palmeiras vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Flamengo part of?
Palmeiras vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 18% chance of winning, Flamengo a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Palmeiras and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palmeiras and Flamengo in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (1.28) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.42x) against Palmeiras's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 2.05.
These ratings are built from 18/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
18%
5.51
23%
4.28
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
3.13
2.05
Flamengo xG
5.51
18%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
13%
7.77
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
2%
42.82
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Palmeiras and 2.05 for Flamengo, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 10W 2D 4L from 16 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 10W 1D 5L across 16 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Palmeiras against 1.94 for Flamengo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 5W 0D 2L from 7 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 4W 1D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Flamengo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 10W 2D 4L in their last 16 games (2.00 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 10W 1D 5L in their last 16 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Flamengo away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.14 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Flamengo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Palmeiras
5
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 1, Flamengo have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Flamengo 0-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 57%, Flamengo 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Palmeiras) and 57% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 43% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Palmeiras's matches and 57% of Flamengo's.
Do Palmeiras and Flamengo tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Palmeiras.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Palmeiras 1-3 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.08 xG and Flamengo 2.05 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 2.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.28 / defence 1.36 against Flamengo attack 1.42 / defence 0.96, drawn from 18/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 18% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 59%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 56%, Flamengo 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palmeiras 2.00 PPG, Flamengo 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.