Corinthians 1-1 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Corinthians at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Neo Química Arena plays host to Corinthians versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 19 September 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Form
Corinthians (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Corinthians's home record at Neo Química Arena: 2W 3D 4L from 9 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Neo Química Arena this season.
America Mineiro's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
America Mineiro's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 4L across 8 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Corinthians, 1.20 for America Mineiro — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Corinthians have seen both teams score in 78% of their games, America Mineiro in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Corinthians, 0 for America Mineiro and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2021, ended 1–0 with Corinthians winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Corinthians — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
America Mineiro — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 58% versus America Mineiro 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Corinthians 32% | America Mineiro 16%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.39 xG and America Mineiro 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.039 / defence 1.288 | America Mineiro attack 0.822 / defence 1.525. League average goals — home 0.876 / away 1.060. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.525 — this is suppressing Corinthians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Corinthians games / 19 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 41% | Draw 30% | America Mineiro 29%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | America Mineiro 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Corinthians as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Corinthians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Corinthians 78% | America Mineiro 62% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 41% | Draw 30% | America Mineiro 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Corinthians 1.39 / America Mineiro 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.039 / def 1.288 | America Mineiro attack 0.822 / def 1.525 | league avg home 0.876 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
1.12
America Mineiro xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs America Mineiro kick off?
Corinthians vs America Mineiro kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs America Mineiro?
Corinthians 1 - 1 America Mineiro.
Where is Corinthians vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs America Mineiro part of?
Corinthians vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 41% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Corinthians and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and America Mineiro?
Record (1 meetings): Corinthians 1W | Draws 0 | America Mineiro 0W.
What form are Corinthians and America Mineiro in?
Corinthians (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. America Mineiro (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Corinthians's attack at 1.04x the league average against America Mineiro's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (0.82x) against Corinthians's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.31
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.51
1.12
America Mineiro xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
7%
14.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Corinthians and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Corinthians and 1.12 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Corinthians come into this having played 19 games, going 7W 8D 4L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, America Mineiro sit at 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Corinthians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Corinthians's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.53 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, America Mineiro have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Corinthians are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 0.89 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Blended
America Mineiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 7W 8D 4L in their last 19 games (1.53 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or America Mineiro away?
Corinthians's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.12 PPG; America Mineiro away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Corinthians or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Corinthians have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Corinthians
3
Draws
2
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 1, America Mineiro have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Corinthians 1-1 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and America Mineiro?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for Corinthians, 62% for America Mineiro — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Corinthians) and 38% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: America Mineiro in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play America Mineiro?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Corinthians's games and 62% of America Mineiro's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Corinthians vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Corinthians's recent games and 38% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians and America Mineiro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Corinthians and America Mineiro drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.39 xG and America Mineiro 1.12 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.04 / defence 1.29 against America Mineiro attack 0.82 / defence 1.52, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 41% | Draw 30% | America Mineiro 29%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 24% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 32%, America Mineiro 16%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
America Mineiro's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Corinthians arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. America Mineiro (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.