Coritiba 0-3 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 46%, yet in-form Fortaleza EC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Fortaleza EC travel to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira to take on Coritiba. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023, 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Coritiba's home record at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Fortaleza EC's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Coritiba's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Coritiba, 1 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Fortaleza EC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 47% versus Fortaleza EC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 47% | Fortaleza EC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.37 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 1.001 / defence 0.985 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.038 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 0.924. Data: 39 Coritiba games / 39 Fortaleza EC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Coritiba 46% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 25%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Fortaleza EC 4.00. Coritiba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coritiba as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortaleza EC (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 40% | Fortaleza EC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 46% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Coritiba 1.37 / Fortaleza EC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 1.001 / def 0.985 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.038 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.407 / away 0.924 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Fortaleza EC xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC?
Coritiba 0 - 3 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 46% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Coritiba and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Fortaleza EC?
Record (2 meetings): Coritiba 1W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 1W.
What form are Coritiba and Fortaleza EC in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Coritiba's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Fortaleza EC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.55
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.32
0.94
Fortaleza EC xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
6%
15.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.94 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coritiba come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 6D 20L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Fortaleza EC sit at 1.45 PPG from 38 outings (15W 10D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coritiba on 1.11 PPG, Fortaleza EC on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Coritiba's home form reads 11W 4D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fortaleza EC have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (8W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coritiba are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.21 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 12W 6D 20L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Coritiba's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.95 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fortaleza EC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Fortaleza EC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coritiba's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Coritiba
0
Draws
3
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Fortaleza EC?
From 4 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Fortaleza EC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2023, when Fortaleza EC 3-1 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 42%, Fortaleza EC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Coritiba) and 53% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Fortaleza EC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Coritiba's recent matches and 58% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Coritiba's recent games and 53% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortaleza EC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Coritiba 0-3 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.37 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Coritiba fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Fortaleza EC outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 46% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 25%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Fortaleza EC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 47%, Fortaleza EC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 1.11 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.