Flamengo 2-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 61% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bahia travel to Estádio do Maracanã to take on Flamengo in Serie A (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 23:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Flamengo have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Flamengo have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Flamengo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bahia — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bahia away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Flamengo) versus 1.40 (Bahia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Flamengo hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 7 wins compared to 1 for Bahia and 0 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Flamengo 0–1 Bahia — a Bahia win.
The head-to-head data gives Flamengo an edge — 7 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bahia trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 55% versus Bahia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 51% | Bahia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.93 xG and Bahia 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.238 / defence 0.790 | Bahia attack 1.058 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.042. Flamengo have a tight defence (rating 0.790), which is pulling Bahia's projected output down. Data: built from Flamengo's last 48 games and Bahia's last 48.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 61% | Draw 23% | Bahia 16%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.63 | Draw 4.38 | Bahia 6.37. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Flamengo 7 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Flamengo's last 10 home games and Bahia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Flamengo 50% (last 10 home games) | Bahia 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, matchday 12 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 61% | Draw 23% | Bahia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Flamengo 1.93 / Bahia 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.238 / def 0.790 | Bahia attack 1.058 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Bahia xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Flamengo vs Bahia FAQs
What time does Flamengo vs Bahia kick off?
Flamengo vs Bahia kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Bahia?
Flamengo 2 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Flamengo vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Flamengo vs Bahia part of?
Flamengo vs Bahia is a Serie A fixture (matchday 12) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 61% chance of winning, Bahia a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Flamengo and Bahia will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Flamengo vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.24x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Flamengo's last 48 games and Bahia's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.38
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.79
0.87
Bahia xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
2%
43.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Flamengo vs Bahia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.87 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo's recent record stands at 43W 20D 13L from 76 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 32W 17D 27L across 76 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bahia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 25W 10D 3L from their last 38 home games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 7W 11D 20L across their last 38 away games, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
Flamengo (Home) vs Bahia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Flamengo
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Flamengo vs Bahia Form FAQs
What form are Flamengo and Bahia in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 games (1.96 PPG), while Bahia have gone 32W 17D 27L in their last 76 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Bahia away?
Flamengo's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.24 PPG; Bahia away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bahia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from July 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Jul 2021, when Flamengo won Bahia 0-5 Flamengo.
Flamengo's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Flamengo
0
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Flamengo vs Bahia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Bahia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Flamengo have won 9, Bahia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Bahia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Bahia 0-3 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Bahia?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 50%, Bahia 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 60% (Bahia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Bahia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Flamengo vs Bahia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Flamengo and Bahia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Flamengo's games and 66% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Flamengo and Bahia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Flamengo's matches and 60% of Bahia's.
Do Flamengo and Bahia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Flamengo's recent matches and 74% of Bahia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Bahia 2-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.93 xG and Bahia 0.87 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bahia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.24 / defence 0.79 against Bahia attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 61% | Draw 23% | Bahia 16%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 51%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.