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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Bahia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Bahia 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.26 xG and Bahia 0.80 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bahia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.46 / defence 0.89 against Bahia attack 1.08 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 70% | Draw 19% | Bahia 11%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights