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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sun 11 May 2025

01:00

Venue

Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Flamengo Win

70%

Flamengo

1.43

19%

Draw

5.21

11%

Bahia

9.07

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

12.0%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

10.6%

Home win

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.26

Flamengo xG

Total xG

3.06

0.80

Bahia xG

70%
19%
FlamengoDrawBahia

1.43

70%

Home win

5.21

19%

Draw

9.07

11%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

59%

Over 2.5

1.69

41%

Under 2.5

2.44

37%

Over 3.5

2.70

63%

Under 3.5

1.59

20%

Over 4.5

5.00

80%

Under 4.5

1.25

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

2.00

50%

BTTS No

2.00

Clean Sheet

45%

Flamengo

2.23

10%

Bahia

9.59

Win to Nil

31%

Flamengo

3.19

1%

Bahia

86.97

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.7 3.7 1.5 0.4 0.1
1 10.6 8.5 3.4 0.9 0.2
2 12.0 9.6 3.8 1.0 0.2
3 9.0 7.2 2.9 0.8 0.2
4 5.1 4.1 1.6 0.4 0.1
5 2.3 1.8 0.7 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.261
λ Away (xG) 0.800
Total xG 3.061
League avg home goals 1.423
League avg away goals 0.837
Flamengo attack strength 1.457
Flamengo defence strength 0.888
Bahia attack strength 1.077
Bahia defence strength 1.091
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 45 / 45