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Prediction vindicated as Cruzeiro edge out Palmeiras 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cruzeiro beat Palmeiras 2-1 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.05 xG and Palmeiras 0.92 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cruzeiro beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.08 / defence 0.80 against Palmeiras attack 1.35 / defence 0.76, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 37% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 30%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 36%, Palmeiras 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cruzeiro's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Cruzeiro winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights