Cruzeiro 2-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 37%, yet in-form Palmeiras provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto to face Cruzeiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 June 2025 at 23:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cruzeiro's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cruzeiro at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palmeiras have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Palmeiras's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palmeiras are 0.80 PPG clear of Cruzeiro in recent Serie A fixtures (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Palmeiras hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Palmeiras winning.
It is worth noting that Palmeiras have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Cruzeiro half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 37% versus Palmeiras 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cruzeiro 36% | Palmeiras 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.05 xG and Palmeiras 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.080 / defence 0.803 | Palmeiras attack 1.353 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 0.848. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — the away xG of 0.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Cruzeiro games / 48 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 37% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 30%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Palmeiras 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cruzeiro are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palmeiras (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cruzeiro 60% | Palmeiras 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 37% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Cruzeiro 1.05 / Palmeiras 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 1.080 / def 0.803 | Palmeiras attack 1.353 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.281 / away 0.848 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Palmeiras xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Cruzeiro 2 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras part of?
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 37% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cruzeiro and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Palmeiras?
Record (4 meetings): Cruzeiro 0W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 3W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Palmeiras in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cruzeiro's attack at 1.08x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.35x) against Cruzeiro's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
37%
2.73
33%
3.00
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
1.97
0.92
Palmeiras xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.92 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cruzeiro come into this having played 76 games, going 25W 24D 27L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.88 PPG from 76 outings (42W 17D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cruzeiro's home form reads 14W 13D 11L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.61 points per game from 38 outings (16W 13D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.63 scored and 0.87 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Palmeiras in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 25W 24D 27L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 42W 17D 17L in their last 76 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.45 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cruzeiro have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Cruzeiro
3
Draws
3
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Palmeiras?
From 7 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 1, Palmeiras have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Palmeiras 1-1 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 47%, Palmeiras 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Cruzeiro) and 42% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Palmeiras in 40%; Cruzeiro have failed to score in 34% of games; Palmeiras in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 42% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cruzeiro edge out Palmeiras 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Palmeiras 2-1 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.05 xG and Palmeiras 0.92 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cruzeiro beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.08 / defence 0.80 against Palmeiras attack 1.35 / defence 0.76, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 37% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 30%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 36%, Palmeiras 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Cruzeiro winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.