Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 30 as Cruzeiro welcome Bahia to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cruzeiro have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cruzeiro have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cruzeiro are significantly better at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto than their overall form suggests.
Bahia — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Bahia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bahia are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cruzeiro, 1 for Bahia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2024, ended 1–4 with Bahia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cruzeiro trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Bahia trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 33% versus Bahia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cruzeiro 34% | Bahia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.61 xG and Bahia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 0.982 / defence 0.882 | Bahia attack 1.117 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 0.983. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Cruzeiro's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Cruzeiro games / 67 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 52% | Draw 26% | Bahia 22%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Bahia 4.55. Cruzeiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cruzeiro as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bahia (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Cruzeiro 40% | Bahia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 52% | Draw 26% | Bahia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Cruzeiro 1.61 / Bahia 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 0.982 / def 0.882 | Bahia attack 1.117 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.351 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Bahia xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Bahia kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Bahia kicked off at 01:30 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Cruzeiro 1 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Bahia part of?
Cruzeiro vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 52% chance of winning, Bahia a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cruzeiro and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Bahia?
Record (3 meetings): Cruzeiro 1W | Draws 1 | Bahia 1W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Bahia in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cruzeiro's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.81
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.58
0.97
Bahia xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
4%
22.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.97 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Cruzeiro have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 23W 21D 23L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Bahia's form line: 25W 14D 28L from 67 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cruzeiro on 1.34 PPG, Bahia on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cruzeiro have posted 1.52 PPG from 33 outings (13W 11D 9L).
On the road, Bahia have gone 7W 7D 19L from 33 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.33 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Bahia in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 23W 21D 23L in their last 67 games (1.34 PPG), while Bahia have gone 25W 14D 28L in their last 67 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Bahia away?
Cruzeiro's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.52 PPG; Bahia away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bahia in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Cruzeiro have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2023, when Cruzeiro won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Bahia?
From 7 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 4, Bahia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Bahia?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 42%, Bahia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cruzeiro) and 54% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cruzeiro have failed to score in 36% of games; Bahia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 54% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cruzeiro vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 54% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Bahia tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bahia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cruzeiro and Bahia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro and Bahia finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.61 xG and Bahia 0.97 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Bahia attack 1.12 / defence 1.21, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 52% | Draw 26% | Bahia 22%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 34%, Bahia 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Bahia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.34 PPG, Bahia 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.