Coritiba 0-1 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coritiba face Sao Paulo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coritiba host Sao Paulo at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A (matchday 4). Kick-off is Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 22:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Sao Paulo have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Coritiba have won 0, Sao Paulo 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2023, ended Coritiba 1–2 Sao Paulo — a Sao Paulo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.12 xG and Sao Paulo 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.688 / defence 1.142 | Sao Paulo attack 0.899 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.150. Coritiba's attack rating of 0.688 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Coritiba's last 3 games and Sao Paulo's last 41.
Result probabilities: Coritiba 34% | Draw 28% | Sao Paulo 37%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.90 | Draw 3.53 | Sao Paulo 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 34% | Draw 28% | Sao Paulo 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Coritiba 1.12 / Sao Paulo 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.688 / def 1.142 | Sao Paulo attack 0.899 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Sao Paulo xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coritiba vs Sao Paulo FAQs
What time does Coritiba vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Coritiba 0 - 1 Sao Paulo.
Where is Coritiba vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Sao Paulo part of?
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 34% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Coritiba and Sao Paulo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Coritiba vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.69x the league average against Sao Paulo's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sao Paulo's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Coritiba's last 3 games and Sao Paulo's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
34%
2.90
28%
3.53
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.31
1.18
Sao Paulo xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coritiba vs Sao Paulo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.18 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Sao Paulo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Coritiba (Home) vs Sao Paulo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Sao Paulo
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from June 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Coritiba's record when hosting Sao Paulo specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Coritiba
3
Draws
3
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Coritiba vs Sao Paulo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Sao Paulo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Coritiba have won 0, Sao Paulo have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Sao Paulo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Sao Paulo 1-1 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Sao Paulo edge out Coritiba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Coritiba 0-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.12 xG and Sao Paulo 1.18 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coritiba fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.69 / defence 1.14 against Sao Paulo attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 34% | Draw 28% | Sao Paulo 37%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.