Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coritiba face Fluminense.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fluminense travel to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira to take on Coritiba in Serie A (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 00:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Fluminense — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Coritiba, 2 for Fluminense and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Coritiba 1–2 Fluminense — a Fluminense win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 0.85 xG and Fluminense 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.591 / defence 1.006 | Fluminense attack 1.133 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.039. Coritiba's attack rating of 0.591 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Coritiba's last 9 games and Fluminense's last 47.
Result probabilities: Coritiba 27% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 44%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 3.77 | Draw 3.34 | Fluminense 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, matchday 10 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 27% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Coritiba 0.85 / Fluminense 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.591 / def 1.006 | Fluminense attack 1.133 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fluminense xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coritiba vs Fluminense FAQs
What time does Coritiba vs Fluminense kick off?
Coritiba vs Fluminense kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Coritiba 1 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Coritiba vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Fluminense part of?
Coritiba vs Fluminense is a Serie A fixture (matchday 10) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 27% chance of winning, Fluminense a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Coritiba and Fluminense will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Coritiba vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Coritiba's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Fluminense's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Coritiba's last 9 games and Fluminense's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
27%
3.77
30%
3.34
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.04
1.18
Fluminense xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
19%
5.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.4 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coritiba vs Fluminense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.18 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Fluminense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Coritiba (Home) vs Fluminense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Fluminense
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Oct 2026, when Fluminense won Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba.
Coritiba's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Coritiba
1
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Coritiba vs Fluminense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Fluminense?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Coritiba have won 2, Fluminense have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Fluminense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Coritiba and Fluminense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba and Fluminense finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 0.85 xG and Fluminense 1.18 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.59 / defence 1.01 against Fluminense attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 27% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 44%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.