Coritiba 2-0 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico-MG at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coritiba face Atletico-MG.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coritiba host Atletico-MG at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 19 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Atletico-MG — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Atletico-MG's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Coritiba have won 1, Atletico-MG 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Coritiba 2–1 Atletico-MG — a Coritiba win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 0.84 xG and Atletico-MG 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.645 / defence 1.015 | Atletico-MG attack 0.902 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.030. Coritiba's attack rating of 0.645 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Coritiba's last 11 games and Atletico-MG's last 49.
Result probabilities: Coritiba 29% | Draw 35% | Atletico-MG 35%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 3.39 | Draw 2.84 | Atletico-MG 2.83. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 74% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, matchday 12 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 29% | Draw 35% | Atletico-MG 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Coritiba 0.84 / Atletico-MG 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.645 / def 1.015 | Atletico-MG attack 0.902 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Atletico-MG xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coritiba vs Atletico-MG FAQs
What time does Coritiba vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Coritiba vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Coritiba 2 - 0 Atletico-MG.
Where is Coritiba vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Atletico-MG part of?
Coritiba vs Atletico-MG is a Serie A fixture (matchday 12) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 29% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Coritiba and Atletico-MG will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Coritiba vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.65x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico-MG's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Coritiba's last 11 games and Atletico-MG's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
29%
3.39
35%
2.84
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Coritiba xG
Total xG
1.78
0.94
Atletico-MG xG
3.39
29%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 15.9 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coritiba vs Atletico-MG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.94 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Atletico-MG
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Coritiba (Home) vs Atletico-MG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Atletico-MG
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Coritiba's record when hosting Atletico-MG specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Coritiba
1
Draws
3
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Coritiba vs Atletico-MG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Atletico-MG?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Coritiba have won 2, Atletico-MG have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Atletico-MG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Atletico-MG 1-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Coritiba cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atletico-MG.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Atletico-MG 2-0 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 0.84 xG and Atletico-MG 0.94 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Coritiba beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atletico-MG landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.65 / defence 1.01 against Atletico-MG attack 0.90 / defence 0.88, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 29% | Draw 35% | Atletico-MG 35%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Coritiba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.