Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chapecoense-sc face Vitoria.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chapecoense-sc and Vitoria meet at Arena Condá in Serie A (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Vitoria's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Vitoria have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.70 xG and Vitoria 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.858 / defence 1.512 | Vitoria attack 0.797 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.042. Vitoria's defence rating of 1.281 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chapecoense-sc's projected output up. Vitoria's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Chapecoense-sc's defence rating of 1.512 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vitoria's projected output up. Data: built from Chapecoense-sc's last 8 games and Vitoria's last 46.
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 48% | Draw 24% | Vitoria 28%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 2.10 | Draw 4.12 | Vitoria 3.57. Chapecoense-sc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chapecoense-sc as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, matchday 10 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 48% | Draw 24% | Vitoria 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.70 / Vitoria 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.858 / def 1.512 | Vitoria attack 0.797 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Vitoria xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria FAQs
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria?
Chapecoense-sc 1 - 1 Vitoria.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria is a Serie A fixture (matchday 10) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 48% chance of winning, Vitoria a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Vitoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chapecoense-sc's attack rating (0.86) and Vitoria's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vitoria's attack (0.80x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Chapecoense-sc's last 8 games and Vitoria's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.12
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.96
1.26
Vitoria xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
5%
19.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.26 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Vitoria
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Chapecoense-sc (Home) vs Vitoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Vitoria
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Chapecoense-sc and Vitoria, the earliest from April 2026. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 7 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
1
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Vitoria?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Vitoria have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Vitoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 October 2026: Vitoria 4-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Vitoria?
Vitoria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chapecoense-sc and Vitoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 10, as Chapecoense-sc and Vitoria drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.70 xG and Vitoria 1.26 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.86 / defence 1.51 against Vitoria attack 0.80 / defence 1.28, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 48% | Draw 24% | Vitoria 28%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.