Chapecoense-sc 3-3 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chapecoense-sc face Coritiba.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Chapecoense-sc welcome Coritiba to Arena Condá in Serie A (matchday 3). Kick-off is Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 22:00 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.94 xG and Coritiba 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 1.175 / defence 1.231 | Coritiba attack 1.012 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.111. Chapecoense-sc's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Coritiba's projected output up. Data: built from Chapecoense-sc's last 2 games and Coritiba's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 50% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 27%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 1.98 | Draw 4.49 | Coritiba 3.65. Chapecoense-sc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chapecoense-sc at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Chapecoense-sc 2 games, Coritiba 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, matchday 3 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 22:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 50% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.94 / Coritiba 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 1.175 / def 1.231 | Coritiba attack 1.012 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Coritiba xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba FAQs
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba kicked off at 22:00 UK time on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?
Chapecoense-sc 3 - 3 Coritiba.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba is a Serie A fixture (matchday 3) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 50% chance of winning, Coritiba a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chapecoense-sc's attack at 1.18x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chapecoense-sc's last 2 games and Coritiba's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
50%
1.98
22%
4.49
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
3.32
1.38
Coritiba xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
4%
25.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.38 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Chapecoense-sc (Home) vs Coritiba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from February 2026. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Coritiba have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Coritiba 2-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba finished level at 3-3 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.94 xG and Coritiba 1.38 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coritiba outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 1.18 / defence 1.23 against Coritiba attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 50% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 27%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.