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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ceara cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gremio.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ceara beat Gremio 2-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.11 xG and Gremio 1.12 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ceara beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gremio landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Gremio attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Ceara 32% | Draw 35% | Gremio 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Ceara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights