Botafogo 0-3 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Botafogo face Flamengo.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Botafogo welcome Flamengo to Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos in Serie A (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 23:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Botafogo — last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Botafogo's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Flamengo stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Flamengo have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Botafogo at 2.00 PPG versus Flamengo's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Botafogo's games and 60% of Flamengo's (from Botafogo's last 10 home games and Flamengo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Botafogo have won 4, Flamengo 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Oct 2025, ended Botafogo 0–3 Flamengo — a Flamengo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 43% versus Flamengo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 43% | Flamengo 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.86 xG and Flamengo 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.325 / defence 1.008 | Flamengo attack 1.281 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.120. Botafogo carry an above-average attack rating of 1.325 — their 1.86 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Flamengo have an above-average attack rating of 1.281, which lifts their away xG to 1.45. Data: built from Botafogo's last 41 games and Flamengo's last 42.
Result probabilities: Botafogo 47% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 30%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.12 | Draw 4.33 | Flamengo 3.36. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.86 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Botafogo's last 10 home games and Flamengo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Botafogo 70% (last 10 home games) | Flamengo 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 6 | Venue: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 47% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Botafogo 1.86 / Flamengo 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.325 / def 1.008 | Flamengo attack 1.281 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Flamengo xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Botafogo vs Flamengo FAQs
What time does Botafogo vs Flamengo kick off?
Botafogo vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Botafogo 0 - 3 Flamengo.
Where is Botafogo vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Flamengo part of?
Botafogo vs Flamengo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 6) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 47% chance of winning, Flamengo a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Botafogo and Flamengo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Botafogo vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Botafogo's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Botafogo's last 41 games and Flamengo's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
47%
2.12
23%
4.33
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Botafogo xG
Total xG
3.31
1.45
Flamengo xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
5%
21.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Botafogo vs Flamengo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.45 for Flamengo, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Botafogo's recent record stands at 40W 22D 14L from 76 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 43W 20D 13L across 76 games — 1.96 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.87 PPG, Flamengo on 1.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 23W 10D 5L from their last 38 home games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 18W 10D 10L across their last 38 away games, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Botafogo are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.83 scored and 0.91 conceded. Flamengo's attacking output running into Botafogo's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Flamengo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
Botafogo (Home) vs Flamengo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Botafogo
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Botafogo vs Flamengo Form FAQs
What form are Botafogo and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 40W 22D 14L in their last 76 games (1.87 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Flamengo away?
Botafogo's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.08 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Flamengo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Flamengo have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Aug 2024, when Botafogo won Botafogo 4-1 Flamengo.
Botafogo's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Botafogo
1
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Botafogo vs Flamengo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Flamengo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Botafogo have won 4, Flamengo have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Flamengo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Flamengo 3-0 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 50%, Flamengo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Botafogo) and 53% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Botafogo vs Flamengo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Botafogo and Flamengo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Botafogo's games and 60% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Botafogo and Flamengo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Botafogo's recent games and 53% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Flamengo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Botafogo's recent matches and 66% of Flamengo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Botafogo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Botafogo 0-3 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.86 xG and Flamengo 1.45 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Botafogo fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.32 / defence 1.01 against Flamengo attack 1.28 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 47% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 30%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 43%, Flamengo 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.87 PPG, Flamengo 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.