Bahia 2-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bahia face RB Bragantino.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Bragantino make the trip to Arena Fonte Nova to face Bahia in Serie A (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 22:00 UK time.
Form
Bahia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Bahia have posted 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bahia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
RB Bragantino away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Bahia, 1.20 for RB Bragantino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Bahia, 2 for RB Bragantino and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Bahia 2–1 RB Bragantino — a Bahia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 54% versus RB Bragantino 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 51% | RB Bragantino 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.41 xG and RB Bragantino 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.952 / defence 0.899 | RB Bragantino attack 0.825 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.146. Data: built from Bahia's last 43 games and RB Bragantino's last 44.
Result probabilities: Bahia 50% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 23%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.00 | Draw 3.67 | RB Bragantino 4.41. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bahia 30% (last 10 home games) | RB Bragantino 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 7 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 22:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 50% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Bahia 1.41 / RB Bragantino 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.952 / def 0.899 | RB Bragantino attack 0.825 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Bahia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.85
RB Bragantino xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bahia vs RB Bragantino FAQs
What time does Bahia vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Bahia vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 22:00 UK time on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Bahia 2 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Bahia vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs RB Bragantino part of?
Bahia vs RB Bragantino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 7) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 50% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bahia and RB Bragantino will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Bahia vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bahia's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.82x) against Bahia's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Bahia's last 43 games and RB Bragantino's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.67
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.26
0.85
RB Bragantino xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bahia vs RB Bragantino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Bahia and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Bahia and 0.85 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 32W 17D 27L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 24W 20D 32L from 76 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Bahia against 1.21 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bahia have posted 2.13 PPG from their last 38 home games (25W 6D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 7W 9D 22L from their last 38 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.17 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino in 61%.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Bahia (Home) vs RB Bragantino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bahia
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Bahia vs RB Bragantino Form FAQs
What form are Bahia and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 32W 17D 27L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or RB Bragantino away?
Bahia's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.13 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Bahia or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bahia and RB Bragantino, the earliest from June 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Bahia have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won Bahia 4-0 RB Bragantino on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bahia
2
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Bahia vs RB Bragantino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and RB Bragantino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bahia have won 6, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and RB Bragantino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: RB Bragantino 2-3 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and RB Bragantino?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 42%, RB Bragantino 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bahia) and 53% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bahia vs RB Bragantino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bahia and RB Bragantino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bahia's recent matches and 63% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bahia and RB Bragantino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bahia's recent games and 53% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and RB Bragantino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Bahia's recent matches and 76% of RB Bragantino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over RB Bragantino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat RB Bragantino 2-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.41 xG and RB Bragantino 0.85 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. RB Bragantino landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against RB Bragantino attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 50% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 23%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 51%, RB Bragantino 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.49 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.