Bahia vs Palmeiras – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Bahia 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palmeiras beat Bahia 1-2 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.05 xG and Palmeiras 1.16 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Palmeiras attack 1.18 / defence 0.88, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 33% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 38%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 51%, Palmeiras 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Palmeiras's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights