Bahia vs Palmeiras – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bahia's attack at 0.89x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
33%
3.05
29%
3.45
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.21
1.16
Palmeiras xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bahia and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Bahia and 1.16 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.