Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Palmeiras (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bahia face Palmeiras.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Palmeiras travel to Arena Fonte Nova to take on Bahia. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 20 November 2024, 21:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.

Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Palmeiras's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Palmeiras's 2.30 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Bahia's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bahia, 3 for Palmeiras and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2024, ended 0–2 with Palmeiras winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Bahia in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 52% versus Palmeiras 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 51% | Palmeiras 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.05 xG and Palmeiras 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.888 / defence 1.011 | Palmeiras attack 1.178 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 0.974. Data: 71 Bahia games / 71 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bahia 33% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 38%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Palmeiras 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 20% | Palmeiras 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights