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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat Bahia 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortaleza EC beat Bahia 2-3 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 2.03 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.86 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fortaleza EC outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.18 / defence 0.78 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.11 / defence 1.22, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 64% | Draw 20% | Fortaleza EC 15%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Fortaleza EC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 54%, Fortaleza EC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bahia 1.49 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights